Expected Value Calculator
See whether the odds you have been offered are genuine value, measured against the sharpest prices in the market.
Checks whether the odds you have been offered pay more than the bet's true chance deserves. No guesswork needed: the true chance comes from Pinnacle's prices, the sharpest in the market.
1Your bet
2The market's true prices
Open Pinnacle (or another sharp bookmaker) and find the same match.
Fill in both steps (or tap the example) and your answer appears here.
This checks one bet at a time. We do it at scale.
Our analysis runs this same value-hunting process across every major sport, every fixture, every day. Members get the results.
How this calculator works
A bet is good value when the odds pay more than the true chance of winning deserves. The catch is that nobody hands you the true chance. Most EV calculators dodge the problem by asking you to estimate it yourself, which is guesswork.
This one derives it from the market instead. Enter Pinnacle's prices on every outcome of the match; the calculator removes Pinnacle's margin, and what remains is the fair probability of your pick. Your bookmaker's odds are then measured against that fair probability, and the result is your expected profit or loss per bet, in pounds and as a percentage edge.
Worked example
Your bookmaker offers 2.45 on a team to win. Pinnacle prices the market at 2.20 and 1.75.
Implied probabilities: 1 ÷ 2.20 = 45.5% and 1 ÷ 1.75 = 57.1%, totalling 102.6% (a 2.6% margin).
Fair probability of your selection: 45.5% ÷ 102.6% = 44.3%.
EV on a £100 stake at 2.45: 100 × (0.443 × 1.45 - 0.557) = +£8.54, an 8.5% edge.
Frequently asked questions
What is expected value (EV) in betting?+
Expected value is the average profit or loss a bet produces if it could be placed many times over. It compares the odds you are taking against the true probability of winning. A positive EV bet is priced in your favour; a negative EV bet is priced in the bookmaker's favour. Almost all standard bookmaker prices are negative EV because of the built-in margin.
Why use Pinnacle's odds to find the true probability?+
Pinnacle is a "sharp" bookmaker: it welcomes winning bettors and takes very large stakes, so its prices are shaped by the smartest money in the market and are widely treated as the most accurate estimate of true probability available. Stripping Pinnacle's small margin out of its prices gives a fair probability you can measure any other bookmaker's odds against, without ever having to guess a probability yourself.
Is a positive EV bet guaranteed to win?+
No. Expected value describes the long-run average, not a single result. A bet with +8% EV still loses more often than not if its win probability is below 50%. The edge only shows up over a large sample of bets, which is why disciplined staking matters more than any single outcome.
The calculation assumes the sharp market's margin is spread evenly across outcomes, which is a simplification. Expected value is a long-run measure, not a prediction of any single bet.
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