Eberechi Eze Hat-Trick: How We Called 12/1 Shots on Target Before Arsenal's Derby Win

Sunday's North London derby delivered one of the most memorable individual performances in Premier League history. Eberechi Eze scored a stunning hat-trick as Arsenal dismantled Tottenham 4-1 at the Emirates Stadium, sending the Gunners six points clear at the top of the table.

But before kick-off, our Pre-Match members had already received their selection: Eze Over 2.5 Shots on Target at 12/1.

He finished with 4 shots on target. Three of them ended up in the back of the net. The selection landed comfortably.

A Hat-Trick 47 Years in the Making

Eze became only the fourth player in history to score a hat-trick in a competitive match between Arsenal and Tottenham. The last man to do it in the league? Alan Sunderland, way back in 1978.

The England international's treble wasn't just historic - it was emphatic. His first came in the 41st minute, a rifled low finish through a crowd of bodies. His second arrived just seconds into the second half, giving Spurs no time to regroup. His third, a curling effort in the 76th minute, sealed his place in North London derby folklore.

For context on the rarity of what we witnessed: no Arsenal player had even scored a Premier League brace against Tottenham since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in December 2018. Eze went one better.

The Transfer That Made It Personal

What made Sunday's performance even sweeter for Arsenal fans was the backstory. Eze was reportedly hours away from completing a move to Tottenham during the summer transfer window. Arsenal swooped in at the last minute and snatched the Crystal Palace star from under their rivals' noses.

When Spurs boss Thomas Frank was asked about facing Eze in his pre-match press conference, he tried to play it cool. "Who's Eze?" he joked.

By full-time, everyone in football knew exactly who Eze was.

The 27-year-old had been easing into life at his new club, starting just one of Arsenal's first five league matches. But when Mikel Arteta needed someone to step up in the biggest fixture of the season so far, Eze delivered a performance that will be replayed for decades.

Why We Identified This Selection

At 12/1, the market had underpriced Eze's attacking threat in this fixture.

We don't make selections based on gut feeling or narrative. Our analysis identified value in Eze's shots on target line before kick-off - nothing more, nothing less. The fact that he went on to score a historic hat-trick and produce one of the great derby performances is a bonus. The selection was right regardless.

This is what data-driven analysis looks like. Finding edges the market has missed, pricing in factors that casual punters overlook, and delivering selections that offer genuine value rather than false promises.

Sometimes the numbers align with history. Sunday was one of those days.

The Bigger Picture

Arsenal's emphatic victory came on a dream weekend for their title hopes. Both Liverpool and Manchester City had lost on Saturday, opening the door for Arteta's side to extend their advantage at the summit. They took full advantage.

With 29 points from 12 games, Arsenal sit six points clear at the top of the Premier League. They've now gone nine league games unbeaten, and performances like Sunday's suggest this could finally be their year.

For Tottenham, it was a chastening afternoon. Frank's defensive setup was torn apart once Arsenal found their rhythm, and the late hijacking of Eze's transfer looks more painful than ever.

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Arsenal host Bayern Munich in the Champions League next - and we'll be ready. Will you?