Manchester City vs Southampton Preview: The Treble Is In Sight, But Haaland Has A Semi-Final Problem
Erling Haaland has scored 12 goals in 12 FA Cup appearances for Manchester City. The Norwegian either empties the clip or he leaves empty-handed, and on the biggest occasions he has left empty-handed every time. Across 14 semi-finals and finals in all competitions for City, spanning 1,140 minutes of football, he has zero goals and zero assists. Twenty-five shots, sixty-two touches in the opposition box, nothing on the board.
That is the one contradiction hanging over an afternoon City should otherwise dominate. The Carabao Cup is already in the cabinet after Arsenal were dispatched at this same ground in March. The Premier League title is back in their hands, joint top with Arsenal on 70 points with five games to play, ahead only on goals scored. Win this semi-final, win the final on the 16th of May, hold their nerve in the league, and Pep Guardiola's side complete the second men's domestic treble in English football history, having been the only club to manage the first.
Twenty unbeaten and nobody outside the Championship was watching
Saints have not lost a football match since the 17th of January. Twenty games unbeaten, including eight straight wins that only snapped four days ago when Bristol City held them to a 2-2 at St Mary's. Seven of those wins were in the Championship, the club's longest top-flight winning streak in a single season since 1896-97.
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Games unbeaten. Southampton have not lost a match since the 17th of January.
Tonda Eckert was appointed permanent head coach on the 5th of December, a little over twelve months on from a Southampton side that had been written about as the worst in Premier League history. The table now has them fourth, 76 points from 44 games, three points behind Ipswich for automatic promotion with the Tractor Boys holding a game in hand. The run to this Wembley afternoon has included knockout wins over Leicester, Fulham and, most notably, a 2-1 quarter-final win over Arsenal at St Mary's on the 4th of April.
The profile of the squad is different from the one that fell out of the Premier League. Daniel Peretz, the January loan signing from Bayern Munich, has been the outstanding goalkeeper in the Championship since he arrived. Léo Scienza leads the division for big chances created with nineteen. Finn Azaz has eleven league goals and seven assists as the attacking midfielder behind the striker. These are numbers that belong in a Premier League side, not a Championship one, and the QF defeat of Arsenal showed what the shape can do against top-flight opposition when the press connects.
Five wins since the Bernabéu, and a title race rewritten in three weeks
Manchester City lost 1-2 to Real Madrid at the Etihad on the 17th of March, went out of the Champions League, and have not been beaten since. Five matches, five wins, twelve goals scored, one conceded. Burnley was won on Wednesday through Haaland's fifth-minute finish at Turf Moor, a third straight Premier League win that lifted City back above Arsenal at the summit.
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Straight wins for Manchester City since the Champions League exit to Real Madrid.
The run has been more than a scoreline sequence. Arsenal were beaten 2-1 at the Etihad six days ago, Havertz's equaliser cancelled by Haaland on 64 minutes, the decisive moment in a nine-point swing that closed across a single month. Chelsea were dismantled 3-0 at Stamford Bridge the week before. The FA Cup quarter-final against Liverpool on the 4th of April ended 4-0, Haaland's hat-trick settling a tie that had been even until Van Dijk conceded a penalty late in the first half.
That Liverpool win sealed an eighth consecutive FA Cup semi-final, a record run in the competition. Three of the four domestic trophies that made up the 2018-19 treble are already won or within reach, and the fourth is the one on Saturday's ticket.
Rotation, fatigue and a selection Pep says he has to think about perfectly
I had a lot of doubts about the line-up today because of the fatigue from Sunday. I have to think perfectly about the line-up against Southampton, knowing that if we win it will be a good decision and if we lose it will be a bad decision, to have fresh legs in the FA Cup semi-final.
— Pep Guardiola
Guardiola's post-match words at Turf Moor were not typical pre-semi confidence. Rodri did not start at Burnley, a groin issue picked up against Arsenal, and Pep's earlier line was that his availability for the semi-final itself was “we'll see.” Nico O'Reilly deputised in midfield on Wednesday with Aït-Nouri coming in at left-back, a shape that is the likeliest template again if Rodri is not passed fit.
Rúben Dias has missed five games with an ankle injury sustained against Madrid and is targeting early May rather than this weekend. Joško Gvardiol remains out with the tibial fracture suffered in January. That leaves Khusanov and Guéhi, the January signing from Crystal Palace, as the centre-back pair, the same makeshift combination that kept a clean sheet against Liverpool.
The headline absence for Saints is Ryan Manning, suspended for the semi-final under the cup-specific two-yellow rule. Manning is not just Saints' first-choice left-back across 34 league starts, he is their crossing outlet on that side with 263 total crosses and thirteen big chances created from the position. Welington comes in without a senior start since the 10th of February, a 74-day gap on the day of the biggest match of Saints' season. Jack Stephens picked up a knock in the warm-up before Bristol City and Eckert is hopeful on his return, a real concern given how much Saints' recent form has depended on their captain.
Predicted Manchester City XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Nunes, Khusanov, Guéhi, Aït-Nouri; Nico González, Bernardo Silva; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland
Predicted Southampton XI (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Welington; Downes, Charles; Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza; Stewart
The press that took down Arsenal, and the ex-City kids trying to repeat the trick
Southampton's 2-1 at St Mary's three weeks ago was not a smash-and-grab. Saints pressed Arsenal into errors, forced loose passes out of the press, and were the better team on the day they chose to be. That same shape, Eckert's 4-2-3-1 with a high line and defensively secure pivots in Flynn Downes and Shea Charles, is the template for Saturday. The difference, obviously, is that City are not Arsenal, and Bernardo Silva or Nico O'Reilly bypassing a press is a very different problem to Declan Rice doing it.
The subplot is that two of the players asking City that question grew up at the club. Taylor Harwood-Bellis came through the City academy, captains this Saints side in Stephens' absence, and is the outlet the build-up runs through with a long-pass range that turns defence into attack in one touch. Shea Charles is the other academy graduate, scored the 85th-minute winner against Arsenal in the quarter-final, and sits deep alongside Downes as the screen in front of the back four. Ex-City spine against City, in a semi-final, at Wembley.
Peretz, the goalkeeper, is the other tactical lever. On loan from Bayern Munich since January, he has been the outstanding shot-stopper in the Championship since his arrival, and on an occasion where City create, and they will create, he is the reason the scoreline might not run away.
Haaland against the man City raised, Doku against the rust
Haaland vs Taylor Harwood-Bellis. One a goal a game in the FA Cup overall, the other a player City raised and sold. Harwood-Bellis has the aerial profile to compete physically, the passing range to pull Haaland's press out of shape, and six Championship goals of his own, numbers that most attacking midfielders in the division would be happy with. Haaland's semi-final record suggests this exact type of fixture is where his output stalls. If Stephens is passed fit alongside him, Saints have the physical pairing they need. If not, Nathan Wood steps in again.
Cherki vs Flynn Downes. Cherki has ten Premier League assists and sixteen big chances created in seventeen league starts, the creative heartbeat of everything City have done since March. Downes is the Saints midfielder charged with killing the lines Cherki plays between, a disruptor with 55 tackles, 44 interceptions and twelve yellows in 32 Championship starts.
If Downes can stick to him and foul him honestly when he breaks the first line, Saints can press City. If Cherki finds a half-second in the pocket, Saints do not.
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Rayan Cherki's Premier League assists in 17 starts this season.
Doku vs Welington. Doku is the Premier League's most prolific dribbler by a distance, and Welington has not started a senior match since the 10th of February.
The best player in the world in the first five metres.
— Pep Guardiola
Eckert publicly said that Welington “needs to find his rhythm” after his cameo against Wrexham, which was as close to announcing a concern as a head coach tends to get. If Saints are going to leak a goal, this corridor is where it comes from.
Four previous meetings, never at this stage
FA Cup Meetings
Four ties. Never at the semi-final stage.
Manchester City5-0Southampton5-1Manchester City3-1Manchester City4-1The 1959-60 defeat was a third-round tie at Maine Road. No prior knockout weight at the semi-final stage, no narrative to draw on.
The wider modern picture is harsher for Saints. Thirteen of the last eighteen meetings between the clubs in all competitions have gone Manchester City's way, with two Saints wins and three draws across that run. The most recent meeting was a goalless draw at St Mary's in May 2025, with Southampton already relegated from the Premier League. This is a different Southampton squad, a different manager, a different level in the pyramid, and the numbers that came before them belong to a different project.
What the records do tell you is that Saints' Wembley history is not kind. Eight defeats in 11 trips, including losses in both of their previous FA Cup semi-finals at the modern Wembley, the last one a 1-0 defeat to Leicester in 2020-21. Their only FA Cup title came 50 years ago this year, Bobby Stokes's 83rd-minute winner against Manchester United in 1976.
A treble on one side, a promotion on the other
The rotation dilemma Guardiola flagged on Wednesday has to be read against the biggest prize of all. Every starter rested on Saturday is a starter available for Everton on Monday the 4th of May, and every starter played on Saturday is 90 minutes of wear against a Premier League run-in that has room for one mistake and not two. With Arsenal breathing directly on City's neck in the title race, the balance between freshening up and keeping rhythm is not hypothetical, which is why Pep is thinking about it “perfectly” instead of just trusting the gut.
Southampton's stakes are smaller in trophy weight but no less real. Saints sit three points behind Ipswich for automatic promotion with two Championship games left, both within the next ten days, with Millwall level on 79 points with Ipswich above them. A trip to the FA Cup final would be their first since 2003, when they lost 1-0 to Arsenal at the Millennium Stadium, and their first shot at lifting the trophy since their only FA Cup title in 1976. There are two paths back into the top flight on the table and Saints are still on both of them.
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Years since Saints' only FA Cup trophy, the 1976 win over Manchester United.
Season Standings Snapshot
| Team | Comp | # | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | PL | 1 | 33 | +37 | 70 |
| Southampton | Championship | 4 | 44 | +24 | 76 |
City joint top on 70 points with Arsenal, ahead only on goals scored. Saints three points behind Ipswich for automatic promotion with two games left.
Pawson, the most lenient referee in the Premier League
Craig Pawson takes this semi-final, a Select Group official since 2013 and, by most recent metrics, the most lenient referee in the Premier League this season. His 2.47 yellow cards per match leads the division for leniency and his penalty rate sits roughly around the league average.
Pawson has refereed 31 career Manchester City matches and City have won 22 of them. He has taken charge of City twice this season already, the 5-4 win at Fulham in December and the 2-1 win at Anfield in February, and his most recent Southampton appointment was the Newcastle opener of 2024-25, a game in which he issued a red card to Fabián Schär. A referee who lets the game run tends to favour the side with the better technical players, and that is the side in sky blue.
Referee Stats: Craig Pawson
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| PL Matches (2025-26) | 17 |
| Avg Cards / Match | 2.47 (most lenient in PL) |
| Penalties Awarded | 5 |
| Career Man City Record | 22W in 31 matches |
| City matches this season | 2 (5-4 at Fulham, 2-1 at Anfield) |
Pawson's most recent Southampton appointment was the Newcastle opener of 2024-25, a game in which he sent off Fabián Schär.
The one day Haaland goes missing, against the one opponent Saints could beat
There is a version of this Saturday where City win by three, Haaland scores early and often, and the treble conversation is the only talking point by Sunday morning. It is the outcome the data points to, the outcome the bookmakers have priced in, and the outcome Saints have to defy rather than deserve.
The other version is the one the research keeps circling back to. Six of Guardiola's seven FA Cup defeats have come at the venue this tie is played at, the City midfield will likely be without Rodri, and on the other side is a squad with a Championship-best goalkeeper, a front line that already undid Arsenal, and two ex-academy City graduates in the spine of the team who know exactly what they are trying to dismantle. At the top of it all sits Haaland, on the kind of stage where 1,140 minutes of semi-final and final football have yielded not a single goal or assist in any competition.
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Minutes Haaland has played in semi-finals and finals for City across all competitions, with zero goals and zero assists.
Eleven of his 12 FA Cup goals have come in hat-tricks, which is another way of saying Haaland shows up for the easy days and the record days, not for the days where opponents cover every space and the margins are fine. Saturday is the second category.
The treble is in sight, and the question is whether the player most likely to deliver it is about to run into the one day of the season when his record says he probably will not.
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