Has Tottenham Forgotten How to Win?

Tottenham haven't won a Premier League match since late December. Twelve games without a league win, five draws and seven defeats, the longest winless run in the club's history. They sit 16th with 30 points from 30 games, one point above the relegation zone, and a few days ago their Champions League campaign ended in a 5-7 aggregate defeat to Atletico Madrid that left the squad emotionally spent and the fanbase searching for reasons to believe anything will change.

On Wednesday night at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Xavi Simons scored twice, including a 90th minute penalty, to give Spurs a 3-2 win on the night in a tie that was already out of reach after the 5-2 first leg demolition in Madrid. Tudor's side showed fight in a lost cause, but fight without results only carries meaning if it translates into something tangible on Sunday afternoon.

The team arriving in North London to test that fragile confidence is Nottingham Forest, who sit one place and one point below Spurs on 29 points, level with West Ham in 18th and separated from the relegation zone only by goal difference. Forest have won three consecutive matches against Tottenham for the first time since 1997, and they travel to a ground where Spurs have won just twice in fifteen Premier League games this season. This is a relegation fight between two clubs who have burned through managers, lost key players to long-term injuries, and arrived at a point in the season where every match feels like the one that will define everything that follows.

The numbers are stark. Zero Premier League wins in 2026 across twelve matches: five draws and seven defeats since the turn of the year, a run that has stretched across two managers and eroded whatever confidence this squad carried into the new calendar year.

Igor Tudor was appointed on 14 February as the club's third manager of the season, replacing Thomas Frank after a 2-1 home defeat to Newcastle. His first match was a 4-1 loss to Arsenal at home, where Eze scored twice and Gyökeres added a brace, and Kolo Muani's first Premier League goal was a mere footnote. His second match was a 2-1 defeat at Fulham, which equalled the club's longest Premier League winless run at the time. His third saw Van de Ven sent off for a professional foul against Crystal Palace, after which three Palace goals arrived in eight minutes of first-half stoppage time to turn a 1-0 Spurs lead into a 3-1 defeat.

Then came Madrid. The first leg at the Wanda Metropolitano finished 5-2 to Atletico, a night defined by Tudor's decision to start Kinsky in goal over Vicario. Kinsky was substituted after just seventeen minutes, having made two errors that led directly to goals, and by the time Atletico's Álvarez, Griezmann, Llorente, and Le Normand had all scored the tie was effectively over. Romero and Palhinha collided in stoppage time and entered concussion protocols, adding injury to an already painful evening. Gary Neville described Tudor's tenure as a car crash.

The second leg offered something different in tone if not in outcome. Tudor used the same 4-4-2 that had earned a 1-1 draw at Liverpool four days earlier, where Spurs held just 37% possession before Richarlison equalised in the 90th minute. Against Atletico at home, Kolo Muani opened the scoring on 30 minutes, Simons added a second on 52 minutes and then converted a stoppage time penalty to make it 3-2 on the night, but Atletico scored twice through Álvarez and Hancko to ensure the aggregate finished 5-7. The structure Tudor has introduced, a direct, low-possession, counter-attacking system built on discipline and second balls, has produced more competitive performances than anything Frank managed, but the league table doesn't care about moral victories.

The home record is the deepest wound. Two wins from fifteen Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season, ten points from a possible forty-five. Tudor himself acknowledged the squad's limitations after the Atletico second leg, describing a situation where he had eleven starting players, Danso, and essentially one substitute to work with. That is the reality of a club trying to survive relegation with a squad ravaged by injuries to Maddison (ACL, out since August), Kulusevski (knee, long-term), Odobert (ACL, out until November 2026), Bentancur (hamstring surgery, May return), and Kudus (thigh, mid-April at the earliest).

Forest's problems look different on the surface but lead to the same place in the table. They cannot score. Twenty-eight goals from thirty Premier League matches makes them the second lowest scorers in the division, and the underlying data across their recent home form tells a story of a team generating chances and wasting almost every single one of them.

Across their last four home league matches, Forest have taken 88 shots, generated an expected goals figure of 6.44, registered 126 touches inside the opposition penalty area, and scored exactly one goal from all of that output. The 0-0 draw with Fulham last weekend was a case study in finishing failure: Ndoye had a goal disallowed for offside, a penalty chalked off for offside, Aina hit the crossbar on 57 minutes, and Awoniyi missed a clear chance in the 88th minute. The volume of chances is there, the quality of finishing is not, and that is a problem no tactical system can solve.

Nuno Pereira is the fourth manager to take charge at the City Ground this season, following Nuno Espirito Santo (sacked 8 September), Ange Postecoglou (appointed the same day, sacked 18 October after zero wins in eight matches), and Sean Dyche (appointed 21 October, sacked 12 February). Pereira arrived on 15 February and is yet to win a league match, with zero victories from five Premier League games. The pattern mirrors Tudor's record at Spurs almost exactly: two interim managers, two identical winless runs, two clubs trapped in the same cycle.

The Europa League has been Forest's one consistent source of confidence. They beat FC Midtjylland on penalties on Thursday night in Denmark, winning the shootout 3-0 after the tie finished 2-2 on aggregate, to reach the European quarter-finals for the first time in roughly thirty years. Pereira showed his priorities clearly by making nine changes from the side that drew with Fulham, resting Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus entirely, though several key players still featured: Anderson, Sangaré, Murillo, Milenković, Aina, Williams, and Yates all played, with some going through extra time before the penalty shootout. The Thursday-to-Sunday turnaround, including travel back from Denmark, creates a genuine fatigue question for those players even as Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus arrive fresh.

For the first time in weeks, Tudor has the option of fielding something close to his strongest available defence. Micky van de Ven returns after serving a one-match Premier League suspension for his straight red card against Crystal Palace on 5 March, having already played in the Atletico second leg on Wednesday. Cristian Romero has completed a four-match Premier League ban, stemming from a red card against Manchester United on 7 February that was extended due to a prior red, and has also cleared concussion protocols following the head clash with Palhinha in Madrid, playing the full ninety on Wednesday. Destiny Udogie came off the bench for twenty minutes against Atletico, his first appearance since early February after a hamstring injury.

That combination means Tudor could field a back four of Spence, Romero, Van de Ven, and Udogie for the first time since January. Against a team that has scored 28 goals in 30 league matches, that defensive reinforcement carries real weight.

The doubts sit further up the pitch. Dominic Solanke has a hip problem and did not train on Friday 20 March, though Tudor said he expects him to be available, most likely from the bench. Solanke's last Premier League start was 5 March against Crystal Palace, and his three league goals in eleven appearances this season, combined with underlying chance creation numbers that rank him in the top tier of Premier League forwards, make him a significant loss if he can't feature at all. Palhinha has been working through concussion protocols since the Madrid first leg on 10 March and has missed both matches since, so even if cleared he is more bench than starting eleven. The long-term casualties, Maddison, Kulusevski, Odobert, Kudus, Davies (broken ankle, mid-April return), and Bentancur, remain unavailable.

Forest's biggest uncertainty is Callum Hudson-Odoi. He was absent from the entire matchday squad for Thursday's Europa League trip to Midtjylland, with no explanation from Pereira as of 20 March. Whether it is injury, illness, or a personal matter is unknown. The significance is considerable: Hudson-Odoi scored both of Forest's first two goals in the 3-0 win over Spurs in December, exploiting Vicario's positioning on each occasion, and his direct running from the left wing is exactly the type of threat that has consistently caused Tottenham problems. If he is unavailable, Domínguez shifts to the left flank and McAtee comes into the side on the right, which alters the attacking profile significantly.

Chris Wood remains out until late April following knee surgery in December, removing the player who scored 20 Premier League goals last season. Jair Cunha is confirmed out with a foot injury sustained in the Midtjylland first leg on 12 March, with a mid-April return expected. Pereira said before the Midtjylland second leg that goalkeeper Ortega was "in condition to play" after a calf injury that kept him out for the Fulham match, though his status for Sunday is not confirmed.

Predicted Tottenham XI (4-4-2): Vicario; Spence, Romero (c), Van de Ven, Udogie; Porro, Gray, Sarr, Simons; Richarlison, Tel

Predicted Nottingham Forest XI (4-2-3-1): Sels; Aina, Milenković, Murillo, Williams; Sangaré, Anderson; Domínguez, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Igor Jesus

Forest have beaten Tottenham in three consecutive competitive meetings, a sequence that hasn't happened since 1997. The run began on Boxing Day 2024 at the City Ground, where Elanga scored the only goal on 28 minutes with an assist from Gibbs-White, and Djed Spence was sent off in the 94th minute for a second yellow. In April 2025, Forest won 2-1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium through goals from Anderson (deflected, 5th minute) and Wood (16th minute), with Richarlison's 87th minute reply arriving too late, completing a league double over Spurs for the first time since the 1996-97 season.

The December 2025 meeting at the City Ground was the most emphatic of the three. Hudson-Odoi scored twice, on 28 and 50 minutes, both times exploiting Vicario's positioning, and Sangaré added a third on 79 minutes. Spurs managed just one shot on target across the entire match. Sam Barrott refereed that game, the same official who took charge of Forest's 0-0 draw with Fulham last weekend.

The pattern across all three victories is consistent: Forest sat deep, stayed compact through the middle, absorbed whatever Spurs could create in possession, and broke with pace on the counter when openings appeared. Tottenham's inability to break down organised low blocks has been a recurring weakness, and Forest have exploited it more effectively than any other side in the division across this period.

Before this three-match winning run, the head-to-head was the opposite way round: Spurs won three consecutive meetings between March 2023 and April 2024, including a 3-1 home win in which Kane scored twice and Son once, and a 2-0 away win where Richarlison and Kulusevski were on target. The pendulum swings, but Forest making it four in a row would take the run into genuinely historic territory.

The central tactical tension in this match is that both teams want to do the same thing. Tudor's Spurs and Pereira's Forest are both built to sit in a compact shape, cede possession, and counter-attack with speed and directness. When two teams share the same philosophy, someone has to abandon it, and at home in front of sixty-three thousand people in a relegation fight, that burden will almost certainly fall on Tudor.

Tudor's biggest results since taking charge have come with minimal possession. Spurs held just 37% of the ball at Anfield and came away with a 1-1 draw, and he used the same low-possession approach against Atletico in the second leg. His post-match language has been consistently about simplicity: "Simple things, second balls, fight, good team spirit, good defence." It has produced better structure than anything Thomas Frank tried in his six months in charge, and it suits the limited personnel Tudor has available.

Pereira's Forest play a near-identical style. A mid-block that invites pressure, a compact back four protected by Anderson and Sangaré in a double pivot, and quick transitions through Gibbs-White and the wide players. Under Nuno earlier in the season Forest operated with the deepest defensive line in the Premier League, and Pereira hasn't pushed it significantly higher since taking over.

The home crowd will push Tudor into holding more territory than he has in recent matches, which paradoxically plays into Forest's hands. Forest are most dangerous when they can absorb pressure and break, while Spurs under Tudor have looked most vulnerable when asked to control games rather than disrupt them. The tactical battle may come down to which team can stay patient longer without the crowd's anxiety seeping into the players on the pitch.

Set pieces could prove decisive. Tudor specifically highlighted them in his pre-match press conference on 20 March, saying "set pieces are always important... we just need to go on set-pieces and win set-pieces if it's possible." With Romero, Van de Ven, and Richarlison all available, Spurs have genuine aerial threats to attack deliveries. Spurs have conceded more goals from outside the box than any other team in the Premier League this season, which means Forest's distance shooters, particularly Anderson and Sangaré, represent a threat from range, but Forest's chronic inability to convert chances from any situation makes it hard to trust them to capitalise even when openings arrive.

Richarlison vs Milenković and Murillo: Richarlison is the most important player in Tottenham's squad right now. Nine Premier League goals and three assists in 25 appearances make him the club's top scorer by a distance, and he has been the player most likely to produce a decisive moment under Tudor, as his 90th minute equaliser at Liverpool demonstrated. He has been called up to the Brazil squad and is indispensable in the relegation fight, given how little goal threat exists elsewhere in this Spurs side.

Milenković and Murillo have been Forest's ever-present centre-back partnership, the one constant across four managers and a chaotic season. They are physical and aggressive, comfortable defending in the low block that Pereira favours, and their ability to hold a disciplined line while dealing with aerial threats will be tested by Richarlison's movement between channels. Richarlison likes to drag centre-backs out of position to create space for runners, and whether this Forest pair can resist that temptation and hold their shape will go a long way toward determining the result.

Xavi Simons vs Elliot Anderson: Simons is Spurs' most technically gifted player, even if his output of one Premier League goal and four assists in 24 appearances hasn't matched his ability consistently this season. Tudor has moved him into a central position, saying "position in the middle is the best one for him," and the two goals against Atletico on Wednesday, a finish on 52 minutes and a 90th minute penalty, could provide the kind of momentum that helps a player of his calibre find a higher level in the matches that follow.

Anderson is the player who makes Forest's midfield function. He leads the Premier League for pressures received and line-breaking passes by a midfielder, carries a season-long FotMob rating of 7.49 which is the highest at the club, and his role in Pereira's system is to disrupt the opposition's creative supply lines while progressing the ball through the thirds. If Anderson can press Simons into rushed decisions and close the gaps between Forest's midfield and defensive lines, Spurs lose their most creative outlet. If Simons finds space to receive and drive forward, Forest's compact shape will come under pressure it hasn't faced in recent weeks.

Pedro Porro vs Neco Williams: Porro operates as a wide right midfielder in Tudor's 4-4-2 rather than a conventional full-back, and his delivery from that flank is one of Spurs' primary attacking weapons. He scored in the first leg against Atletico in Madrid and his crossing represents a genuine threat from both set pieces and open play. Williams is an attacking full-back who pushes high and is comfortable in one-on-one situations, which means this will be the most open and contested channel on the pitch. The player who wins this battle will likely dictate the tempo on the right side of the match, where much of the game's action could be concentrated.

The league table reduces everything to its simplest form. Tottenham: 16th, 30 points. Forest: 17th, 29 points. West Ham: 18th, 29 points. Leeds in 15th on 32 points, Burnley in 19th on 20, Wolves in 20th on 17. One point separates Spurs from the relegation zone, and Forest are level on points with the team occupying the final relegation place, separated only by a goal difference of -15 compared to West Ham's -19.

A Spurs victory opens a four-point cushion over Forest and gives Tudor his first Premier League win since taking charge, which would be as much a psychological breakthrough as a mathematical one. A Forest victory takes Pereira's side above Spurs on points and deepens the crisis at a club whose last relegation came in the 1976-77 season. A draw keeps both sides in danger and hands the initiative to the clubs around them.

Paul Merson said on Sky Sports on 20 March that Sunday is "one of the biggest games Tottenham have played" and that "this is the club's future on the line." With eight matches remaining for both sides and no margin for error in any of them, the international break that follows this fixture means two weeks of reflection on whatever happens at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. A defeat here doesn't just cost three points, it costs the psychological stability that either club needs to navigate the final stretch of the season.

Forest goalkeeper Ortega said after the Midtjylland victory on Thursday that Sunday represents a "big chance to get the three points, get above them and keep going." Pereira framed it differently: "It's a very important match, but in the end it's 11 vs 11 on the pitch." Both perspectives contain truth. The stakes are enormous, but the match itself will be decided by the same margins that have defined both clubs' seasons: a missed chance, a set piece delivery, a moment of composure or panic in a match where composure will be the hardest thing to find.

Michael Oliver takes charge of his 20th Premier League match of the season, having awarded just one penalty in those 19 previous fixtures. That is notably low for a referee who has officiated more matches than almost anyone else in the division, and if either side is expecting a spot kick to decide this one the numbers suggest they will be disappointed.

His card count averages around 2.8 yellows per game across the season, though his recent form has been significantly heavier, with seventeen yellows and a red across his last four Premier League appearances alone. He also awards more fouls than any other Premier League referee this season, with 470 in 19 matches, which could fragment the rhythm of a contest that both teams want to play on the counter and turn it into a set-piece battle decided by dead-ball situations and second balls.

The card watch falls on Romero, who sits on nine Premier League yellows this season. One more booking before Matchday 32 triggers an automatic two-match suspension, which would remove Spurs' most important defender for two matches during the most critical stretch of the club's season. Oliver has shown 95 yellows and 6 reds to Spurs players across 54 career matches officiating Tottenham, which is not an unusually high rate but is worth noting given Romero's disciplinary situation. Tudor will need his captain to channel his aggression carefully on Sunday, because a moment of frustration could cost Spurs far more than a single booking.

This is the kind of match that defines a season not through the quality of football on display but through the weight of what surrounds it. Two clubs who have each employed four managers this campaign, who have lost their most important players to long-term injuries, and who have arrived at a place in the table that nobody at either club imagined when the season started in August.

Spurs have the home advantage, a returning defensive core that could field its strongest back four since January, and the emotional energy of a midweek European night where the squad demonstrated it can still fight even when the cause is lost. Forest have three straight wins over this opponent, a pragmatic defensive structure that has historically frustrated Tottenham, and a manager who has already shown he will sacrifice European progress to prioritise Premier League survival.

Forest's inability to score, 28 goals in 30 matches and falling, means they need a near-perfect defensive performance to take anything away from this game. Spurs' inability to win at home, two victories from fifteen matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, means they need a breakthrough that is as much about belief as it is about tactics, because this is a group of players who have not experienced a league victory in almost three months.

Something has to give on Sunday afternoon. One side will leave with three points and a lifeline into the international break, and the other will spend the next two weeks staring at a table that offers no comfort and very little time to change it.