Third Time Unlucky for Italy?

Northern Ireland have not scored against Italy since 1961. Sixty-five years, seven matches, zero goals. The last time they actually beat them was January 1958, a 2-1 win at Windsor Park that knocked the reigning two-time world champions out of that year's World Cup. Nobody expected it then, either.

Italy arrive in Bergamo on Thursday evening as overwhelming favourites for this World Cup playoff semi-final, 56 places above Northern Ireland in the FIFA rankings with four stars on their shirt. But favourites is a word that has tortured Italian football for the best part of a decade. They were favourites against Sweden in 2017, when a goalless draw in Milan ended their World Cup hopes for the first time since 1958. They were favourites against North Macedonia in 2022, when a 92nd-minute goal in Palermo ended the most embarrassing night in the history of the Azzurri.

A third consecutive World Cup absence would be unprecedented for any former champion. The pressure is not just significant, it is existential.

Gattuso's record reads well on paper. Six wins and two defeats from eight qualifiers, 21 goals scored, second place behind a Norway side that went eight from eight. Dig beneath the surface and the picture is less comfortable.

Both defeats came against Norway, and they were not close. A 3-0 humiliation in Oslo, followed by a 4-1 collapse at San Siro in November that saw Italy throw away a half-time lead in front of nearly 70,000 supporters. Haaland scored twice in twelve minutes as the Italian defence simply stopped functioning.

The wins carry caveats. Italy needed an 88th minute header from Mancini to break Moldova's deep block. The 5-4 thriller against Israel in Debrecen featured two Italian own goals and a 90+1' winner from Tonali. Even the comfortable results required patience against deep-sitting defences before the goals eventually arrived.

Italy have not played a competitive match since November 16, 2025. No friendlies, no warm-up fixtures, nothing. A four-month gap heading into the biggest game of Gattuso's managerial career.

Northern Ireland's route to Bergamo has been anything but straightforward. Third in a qualifying group behind Germany and Slovakia, they reached the playoffs through the Nations League after topping a League C group above Bulgaria, Belarus, and Luxembourg.

Michael O'Neill's side won three and lost three in qualifying. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat, competed admirably against the ones they were not, and showed enough defensive resilience at home, conceding just one goal in three Windsor Park matches, to suggest they can make life deeply uncomfortable for technically superior opposition.

The problem is goals. Seven scored in six qualifiers, and not a single one from a striker in open play. Their goals came from a midfielder, a wing-back, a penalty, an own goal, and set-piece situations. Against Donnarumma, finding the net even once from open play will require something close to perfection on the counter-attack.

Federico Chiesa, recalled for the first time since Euro 2024, was sent home on March 23 after Gattuso cited "minor physical issues" and suggested the Liverpool forward was "not up to it." The phrasing was loaded, the implication clear: this was not purely a fitness decision.

More consequential on the pitch is Alessandro Bastoni's bruised fibula from the Milan derby two weeks ago. If he cannot start, Gattuso loses the left-sided centre-back whose composure on the ball and aerial presence from set pieces have been central to the 3-5-2 system. Scalvini or Buongiorno would step in. Tonali is carrying a minor knock from Newcastle's Champions League match against Barcelona, though scans have ruled out a muscular lesion.

Northern Ireland's losses are more straightforward and arguably more damaging. Conor Bradley, the Liverpool right-back who captains the side at 22 and is comfortably their best player, has been out for the season with a knee injury. Daniel Ballard, the one NI defender with genuine aerial dominance, withdrew with a hamstring injury on March 23. His replacement is 19-year-old Tom Atcheson, a Blackburn defender making his first senior squad.

Without Bradley and Ballard, Northern Ireland have lost their captain, their best defender, and the right side of their entire system. Trai Hume takes the armband and the burden of holding together a reshuffled back line against Dimarco's deliveries and Retegui's movement.

Northern Ireland will sit deep, cede possession, and try to stay in the game for as long as possible. Italy will dominate the ball, recycle through their back three, and look for openings through Dimarco's overlapping runs on the left and Barella's late arrivals into the box.

Gattuso's qualifying campaign suggests breaking them down is far from guaranteed. Italy struggled to unlock Moldova until the 88th minute. They needed a second-half penalty to get past Israel at home. Their five goals against Estonia all came after the break, when fatigue opened spaces that tactical acumen had not.

Northern Ireland's counter-attacking threat is limited without Bradley, but not non-existent. Isaac Price has the legs to carry the ball through transitions, and if Shea Charles is fit, his passing range from deep gives O'Neill an outlet that can bypass Italy's press in a single ball. The set-piece route remains live, too. Donley's delivery and the physical presence of McNair, Hume, and Toal from corners could test an Italian defence that conceded two own goals from set-piece situations during qualifying.

Dimarco vs Hume: Federico Dimarco has been Italy's primary creative outlet from the left flank, delivering four assists in qualifying with crossing ability that ranks among the best in European football. Trai Hume, tasked with captaining the side and anchoring the right of a reshuffled defence, faces the twin challenge of tracking Dimarco's runs and organising a back line missing its two best defenders. Hume is Sunderland's most consistent Premier League performer and comfortable at this level, but the volume of defending required will test his concentration over ninety minutes, or potentially one hundred and twenty.

Barella vs Shea Charles: Nicolò Barella is the engine of this Italian side, the player whose pressing, progressive carrying, and goal threat from deep make him almost impossible to contain. When he was suspended against Moldova, Italy's midfield lost its urgency entirely. Shea Charles, returning from injury, is the one Northern Ireland player capable of receiving under pressure, turning, and finding a forward pass that starts a counter-attack. If Charles is fit enough to last the match, O'Neill has someone who can compete in this space. If he fades, Northern Ireland lose their only route out of their own half through the middle of the pitch.

For Italy, this is the first step in a playoff journey they have failed to complete twice in succession. For Northern Ireland, it is the chance of a generation, an opportunity to reach the World Cup for the first time since 1986, representing a country of fewer than two million people on the biggest stage in world sport.

The quality gap is obvious. Italy's squad is stocked with players competing in Champions League knockout rounds and winning Premier League titles. Northern Ireland's most capped outfield player available, Paddy McNair, plays for Hull City in the Championship.

But World Cup playoffs are not played on paper, and Italy know that better than anyone. Sweden in 2017 were supposed to be manageable. North Macedonia in 2022 were supposed to be routine. The pattern is clear: let the minutes tick past without a goal, and the weight of expectation that should be Italy's greatest asset becomes the thing that suffocates them.

Northern Ireland will arrive in Bergamo with a wall of green shirts behind the ball and the knowledge that one set piece, one moment of Italian panic, could change everything. History says they should not be here. But history also said that about Belfast in 1958.