Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen Preview: Second Leg Advantage, Grimaldo Absence & Quadruple Chase at the Emirates

Arsenal welcome Bayer Leverkusen to the Emirates on Tuesday evening for the Champions League Round of 16 second leg, with the tie poised at 1-1 on aggregate. Kick-off is at 8pm GMT in north London, where Mikel Arteta's side will look to finish the job in front of a sold-out home crowd and move one step closer to what would be a historic quadruple. The first leg at the BayArena on 11th March ended level after Robert Andrich headed Leverkusen in front from an Alejandro Grimaldo corner shortly after half-time, before Kai Havertz rescued Arsenal with an 89th-minute penalty against his boyhood club. The drama of that late equaliser shifted the momentum firmly in Arsenal's favour, and the numbers back that up. Arsenal sit top of the Premier League by nine points, finished first in the Champions League league phase with a perfect eight wins from eight, and have lost just once at the Emirates in all competitions this season. Leverkusen, meanwhile, arrive in London having won just once in their last six matches, and they will be without their best player for this decisive fixture.

Arsenal's Form

Arsenal's recent form tells the story of a team hitting peak performance at the business end of the season. Five wins and a draw from their last six outings across all competitions underline the consistency that has defined their campaign, and the only blemish was the first-leg draw in Leverkusen where Havertz's late penalty ensured Arsenal returned to London with the tie level. The 4-1 demolition of Tottenham on 22nd February was a statement result, with Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyökeres each scoring twice to reassert Arsenal's dominance in north London. A narrow 1-0 win at Brighton followed on 4th March, secured by a Bukayo Saka goal on his 300th Arsenal appearance, before a 2-1 victory over Chelsea at the Emirates continued the momentum. Most recently, a 2-0 win over Everton saw 16-year-old Max Dowman become the Premier League's youngest-ever scorer, netting in the 90th minute plus seven to cap a dominant home display. Arsenal have scored in every match since mid-January and their 22 goals conceded in 31 Premier League games gives them the division's tightest defence for a third consecutive season.

Bayer Leverkusen's Form

Leverkusen's form paints a very different picture. Kasper Hjulmand's side have won just once in their last six matches, drawing five times in a run that stretches back to late February. The sole victory came in a rescheduled 1-0 win at Hamburger SV on 4th March, which hardly qualifies as a confidence booster. A 3-3 draw at SC Freiburg on 7th March saw Leverkusen throw away a lead, and a 1-1 draw with Mainz at home continued the pattern of a team unable to find a finishing blow. Most recently, Leverkusen drew 1-1 with Bayern Munich at the BayArena on 14th March despite Bayern receiving two red cards, with Aleix García scoring early before the hosts failed to capitalise on their numerical advantage. Jonas Hofmann even had a late goal disallowed, summarising Leverkusen's inability to convert promising situations into wins. The bigger concern heading into Tuesday is who they lost in that Bayern match, with García suffering a head injury and Martin Terrier going off with an ankle problem, leaving Hjulmand's squad thinner than ever for the trip to London.

Team News & Predicted Lineups

Arsenal's biggest question mark surrounds Martin Ødegaard, who missed both the first leg and the Everton match with a recurring knee issue. Norway's national team manager suggested a late March return, making his involvement here unlikely but not impossible. Jurriën Timber is also a major doubt after being substituted before half-time against Everton with an unspecified issue, and Arteta offered no update in his post-match press conference. Leandro Trossard picked up a knock against Mansfield in the FA Cup on 7th March and missed the Everton match despite returning to training, placing him in the minor doubt category. Mikel Merino remains out long-term after foot surgery earlier this year. On the positive side, William Saliba returned from an ankle problem to start both the first leg and the Everton fixture, and the rest of the squad is fully available. If Timber is ruled out, Yerson Mosquera is the most likely replacement at right-back.

Leverkusen's injury situation is significantly worse, and it worsened dramatically in the 1-1 draw with Bayern Munich on 14th March. Alejandro Grimaldo is confirmed suspended after accumulating yellow cards, having been booked in the first leg. His absence removes Leverkusen's highest-rated player, their primary set-piece delivery threat, and the man who assisted Andrich's first-leg opener. Aleix García suffered a head injury against Bayern and is almost certainly ruled out under concussion protocol, stripping Hjulmand of his midfield controller who had filled the role vacated by Granit Xhaka's summer departure to Sunderland. Martin Terrier went off with an ankle injury in the same match and is rated doubtful. Patrik Schick, Leverkusen's top scorer with 13 goals this season, has been managing muscular problems since early March and his fitness remains uncertain. Mark Flekken, Loïc Badé, Arthur, and Lucas Vázquez are all out with long-term injuries. The loss of both Grimaldo and García for a Champions League knockout decider at the Emirates is a devastating blow for the visitors.

Head-to-Head

Arsenal and Leverkusen have a short but interesting competitive history, with all three previous meetings coming in the Champions League. Arsenal have never lost to the German side, winning once and drawing twice before Tuesday's first leg produced the third draw. The most memorable encounter was the 4-1 victory at Highbury in February 2002, when Robert Pirès, Thierry Henry, Patrick Vieira, and Dennis Bergkamp all found the net in one of Arsenal's finest European performances under Arsène Wenger. That 2001/02 season saw both clubs reach the deep stages of the competition, with Leverkusen making it all the way to the final before losing to Zinedine Zidane's iconic volley for Real Madrid in Glasgow. The historical record offers a significant cautionary note for Leverkusen: they have never progressed from a Champions League knockout round when failing to win the first leg at home, a pattern that stretches back across six previous occasions.

Tactical Breakdown

The first leg was tactically fascinating, and Leverkusen's disciplined 3-4-2-1 shape limited Arsenal to just six shots across the entire 90 minutes, their lowest total in any Champions League match this season. Hjulmand set up a compact low-to-mid block that collapsed space in central areas and forced Arsenal to recycle possession laterally, and the plan worked until the final minutes when Noni Madueke's introduction off the bench injected the directness Arsenal had been lacking.

The conditions for the second leg are fundamentally different. Grimaldo's suspension removes Leverkusen's primary creative outlet from left wing-back, the player responsible for assisting Andrich's opening goal and their most dangerous set-piece deliverer. García's likely absence through concussion protocol strips away the midfield controller who replaced Xhaka's role as the tempo-setter in possession. Without those two, Leverkusen lose both their ability to build patiently through midfield and their threat from dead-ball situations in a single blow.

Arsenal's set-piece machine should be the dominant factor on Tuesday night. Nicolas Jover's coaching has produced 16 Premier League goals from corners this season, matching the all-time single-season record, and the combination of Rice and Saka delivering into the box for Saliba, Gabriel, and Timber to attack gives Arsenal a near-automatic threat from every dead-ball situation. In the first leg, Leverkusen won the set-piece battle thanks to Grimaldo's quality. Without him, Arsenal should reassert their superiority in that department. Additionally, Leverkusen have conceded the most shots from high turnovers in this season's Champions League, with 26 across eight league-phase matches, a vulnerability that Arsenal's aggressive press led by Gyökeres will look to exploit from the first whistle at the Emirates.

Key Battles

Saka vs Hofmann/Quansah on Leverkusen's left side: With Grimaldo gone, whoever fills the left wing-back role will face Saka's direct running without the usual protection. Saka leads Arsenal in total shots and completed dribbles this season, and his ability to commit defenders one-on-one in wide areas is a nightmare matchup for a replacement who lacks Grimaldo's defensive nous at this level.

Rice and Zubimendi vs Leverkusen's depleted midfield: If García misses out, Exequiel Palacios and Iker Fernández become Leverkusen's central partnership. Rice leads the Premier League in progressive carries and ball recoveries, while Zubimendi provides the press-resistant base that allows Arsenal to control tempo. Against a makeshift midfield pairing, the hosts should dominate possession and territory in the middle of the park.

Gyökeres vs Andrich: Andrich scored the first-leg header and has been converted from midfielder to centre-back, a transition that works well in the Bundesliga but faces a sterner test against the Premier League's most relentless forward. Gyökeres leads multiple Opta pressing metrics across the entire division and has scored in each of his last three appearances. His combination of physical aggression, movement across the front line, and clinical finishing will test whether Andrich's positional discipline can hold under sustained pressure.

Kofane vs Saliba and Gabriel: Nineteen-year-old Christian Kofane was Leverkusen's brightest attacking spark in the first leg, testing Raya early with his pace and directness. The teenage forward signed from Albacete in the summer has five Bundesliga goals and represents Leverkusen's biggest threat on the counter. However, Saliba and Gabriel have formed one of Europe's meanest defensive partnerships, conceding just 22 goals in 31 league games, and the Emirates crowd will provide an atmosphere that few 19-year-olds have experienced in a Champions League knockout tie.

Hincampíe vs his parent club: Piero Hincampíe joined Arsenal on loan from Leverkusen and is expected to start at left-back against the club that still holds his registration. These situations often produce motivated performances, and the Ecuadorian international will be desperate to showcase his quality on the biggest stage while knowing every Leverkusen coach and analyst understands his game intimately.

Table Context

Arsenal sit first in the Premier League with 70 points from 31 matches, nine clear of Manchester City in second who have two games in hand. The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal an 82% probability of winning their first league title in 22 years, and the Champions League represents the jewel in the crown of a potential quadruple campaign that also includes an FA Cup quarter-final against Southampton and a Carabao Cup final against Manchester City on 22nd March, just five days after this second leg. Arsenal's side of the Champions League draw is remarkably favourable. The winner of this tie faces Bodø/Glimt or Sporting CP in the quarter-finals, with the semi-final path avoiding Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, PSG, Liverpool, and Manchester City until the final. The Opta supercomputer rates Arsenal's Champions League winning probability at 27%, making them tournament favourites.

Leverkusen sit sixth in the Bundesliga with 45 points from 26 matches, a full 22 points behind runaway leaders Bayern Munich. The defending 2023/24 domestic double winners have regressed significantly following the summer departures of Xabi Alonso, Florian Wirtz, Jonathan Tah, Granit Xhaka, and Jeremie Frimpong, among others. Hjulmand has stabilised the ship after Erik ten Hag's disastrous two-match tenure, but Leverkusen are fighting for European qualification places rather than the title. Their Champions League journey, which survived a 2-7 hammering by PSG and included impressive away wins at Benfica and Manchester City, has been admirably resilient, but the squad depth required to compete on multiple fronts simply is not there. Historically, Leverkusen have lost 10 of their last 12 Champions League Round of 16 matches and have never advanced when failing to win the first leg at home.

Referee Watch

Danny Makkelie, the 43-year-old Dutch official, has been appointed to take charge of the second leg with Dennis Higler on VAR. Makkelie is one of UEFA's most decorated active referees, with over 670 career matches and more than 46 Champions League assignments to his name. He refereed the 2020 Europa League Final and officiated at Euro 2020, the 2022 World Cup, and Euro 2024. Across his career, Makkelie averages 3.32 yellow cards per match and has awarded penalties in approximately 23% of his games, with red cards appearing in around 15% of fixtures.

Arsenal have never lost a match Makkelie has officiated, with previous assignments including the 2023/24 Champions League quarter-final second leg against Bayern Munich at the Emirates. He has also officiated Leverkusen fixtures during their historic 2023/24 unbeaten campaign. Makkelie's career has not been without controversy, including a debated penalty for England at Euro 2020 and a brief UEFA suspension after Euro 2024, but his reinstatement for 2025/26 reflects continued trust from European football's governing body. Notably, his VAR is Dennis Higler rather than the first-leg's Rob Dieperink, a change both camps will have noted given the controversial penalty review that dominated the post-match discussion in Leverkusen.

The Bottom Line

Everything points towards an Arsenal-dominated evening at the Emirates. Arteta's side hold home advantage with the tie level, they are in the form of their lives with five wins from six, and the Champions League quarter-final draw has handed them a favourable path to the final. Leverkusen arrive in London having won just once in six matches, missing their best player through suspension, almost certainly missing their midfield controller through concussion protocol, and carrying doubts over their top scorer and a key attacker. The loss of Grimaldo alone fundamentally alters the dynamic of this tie, removing both the set-piece threat that produced the first-leg opener and the creative width that gave Arsenal's defence something to think about. The question is not really whether Arsenal will advance, but whether they can do so comfortably enough to preserve energy for the Carabao Cup final five days later. The wild cards remain: Havertz returning to face his boyhood club with a point to prove, Hincampíe lining up against the team that developed him, and teenagers Kofane and Dowman adding unpredictability at both ends. It promises to be a compelling European night in north London.